Accurate channel digitizing implies following actual flow path including either emerging meanders in recent data or oxbow lakes that used to be a channel in the past. Connecting such segments may give a false impression of tremendous channel migration. These cases can be detected by analyzing curvature changes.

We are likely dealing with formation or collapse of a meander when the largest curvature changes between past and recent data in about at least an order of magnitude and either curvature is large enough for a visible meander.

The following plot might give you an idea how to pinpoint such cases.

library(rgdal)
library(ggplot2)
library(grid)
Original <- readOGR("..", "lower_mn_1938")
Final <- readOGR("..", "lower_mn_2009")
Years <- 71
spar <- 0.4
Step_pattern <- 'symmetricP05'
Curvature_multiplier <- 1e5
Step <- 25
source('~/.qgis2/processing/rscripts/Channel migration.rsx')
Min_curvature <- 1e-3
source('~/.qgis2/processing/rscripts/Meander enumeration.rsx')
source('~/.qgis2/processing/rscripts/Meander summary.rsx')
transp <- element_rect(fill='transparent')
qplot(abs(c_from)+abs(c_to), log10(abs(c_from/c_to)), size=len, data=Meanders@data) +
  annotation_custom(grob=rectGrob(gp=gpar(fill='gray60',alpha=.2)), xmin=.005, ymin=-3, xmax=.05, ymax=-1) +
  annotation_custom(grob=rectGrob(gp=gpar(fill='gray60',alpha=.2)), xmin=.005, ymin=1, xmax=.05, ymax=3) +
  annotate('text', .02, 1.5, label='collapsing meanders', size=8) +
  annotate('text', .02, -1.5, label='emergin meanders', size=8) +
  theme_bw() %+replace%
  theme(plot.background=element_rect(fill='transparent', colour='transparent'),
        legend.background=transp, legend.key=transp, panel.background=transp)

oxbow.svg

Figure 1: Change in maximum curvature for meanders

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